Translate the scoreboard into points away
At 3–1 in a five-point match, the leader is 2-away and the trailer is 4-away. Match equity is your probability of winning the whole match from a position. Winning two game points at 2-away wins the match. Winning two at 4-away leaves another game to play. The same cube and board can call for a different decision as the match score changes.
Match equity tables estimate the chance of winning from each score for evenly matched opponents. Read the Crawford or post-Crawford entry where it applies. For a cube decision, find the resulting scores after a pass and after each possible win or loss, including gammons. Weight those match equities by their probabilities. When future redoubles are possible, include that option in the evaluation.
Ivory leads 3–1 to five. A 2-point win ends the match for Ivory, but a 2-point win for Umber levels it at 3–3.
Borne off · Ivory 14/15 · Umber 13/15
Find dead cubes and redundant gammons
When the cube is worth enough for its owner to win the match with a single, that player has no useful redouble. Offering a larger value would add no reward for their wins and might increase the damage when they lose. If both players win the match with a single at the current value, all gammon and backgammon premiums are redundant for both.
At 3–1 to five with the cube at 2, Ivory wins the match with any win, while Umber needs a gammon to do the same. That asymmetry can make a gammon-saving checker play valuable to Ivory even though playing for an Ivory gammon adds nothing. In the illustrated pure race, both sides already have checkers off, so only singles remain.
At 2-away each with the cube accepted at 2, the next game winner wins the match. A further double cannot improve the result for either side.
Borne off · Ivory 14/15 · Umber 13/15
Use the post-Crawford score
If a five-point match continues at 4–3 after Crawford, the trailer is 2-away and the leader is 1-away. A 2-cube gives the trailer a match win on a single. As long as the format allows it, the trailer normally doubles at the first opportunity because the leader’s single already ends the match. If the leader passes, the score becomes 4–4 and the next game decides the match. With evenly matched players, that gives the leader a 50% benchmark. Taking immediately makes the current game decide the match instead.
Consider a simple dead-cube take with no gammons and no further doubles, from the receiver’s perspective. If passing leaves 30% match equity, while taking produces a match win with any win and a match loss with any loss, the take needs 30% game-winning chances. Derive the threshold from the actual score instead of carrying over the money-game 25%.
Umber is on roll and needs two points. Doubling changes an Umber single from a one-point gain to a match win. The same offer would have been forbidden in the Crawford game.
Practice question
At 3–3 to five with a 2-cube already in play, how much does a gammon improve the winner’s chance of winning the match over a single?
Show answer
It adds nothing. Either result supplies the two points required to win the match.